Internal Human Super-Forecasters

Mercor is hiring Internal Human Super-Forecasters on behalf of a leading AI Lab developing the next generation of decision-intelligent systems. This unique role invites you to apply your expert forecasting skills to collaborate with AI researchers and engineers, training, evaluating, and refining models that make probabilistic predictions about strategic events, market shifts, and complex uncertainties.

Responsibilities

• Work closely with AI research teams to generate, train, and validate human-anchored forecasts on key strategic questions, scenario outcomes, and emerging risks.

• Apply rigorous probabilistic reasoning, structured judgment, and quantitative techniques to enhance both human and machine forecasting accuracy.

• Evaluate AI models’ forecasts for coherence, calibration, and alignment with structured human judgment — provide expert feedback on model errors and biases.

• Design, participate in, and review forecasting experiments and challenge frameworks, focused on turning strategic uncertainty into actionable insight.

• Participate in synchronous collaboration sessions (4-hour windows, 2–3 times per week) to review forecast portfolios, debate scenarios, refine judgments, and align human-machine reasoning.

Requirements

• Advanced degree or extensive professional experience in Forecasting, Decision Science, Economics, Political Science, Risk Analysis or a related field.

• Proven track record of making high-quality probabilistic forecasts, scenario analyses, or decision-intelligence insights.

• Strong competency in probability, calibration, scenario design, and structured judgment techniques.

• Proficiency with forecasting tools, data visualization, or statistical software (e.g., Python, R, Excel) is highly valued.

• Excellent written and verbal communication, strong analytical reasoning, and collaborative mindset.

• Commitment of 20–30 hours per week, including required synchronous collaboration periods.

Why Join

• Collaborate with a world-class AI research lab to influence how intelligent systems anticipate strategic events, market inflections, and systemic vulnerabilities.

• Play a key role in shaping the way AI models understand and simulate human forecasting judgment and uncertainty quantification.

• Work alongside leading experts in forecasting, decision science, AI, and analytics — bridging human judgment and machine reasoning.

• Join a global network of expert forecasters helping build AI systems grounded in disciplined, accurate forecasting and insight.

We consider all qualified applicants without regard to legally protected characteristics and provide reasonable accommodations upon request.

Contract and Payment Terms

• You will be engaged as an independent contractor.
• This is a fully remote role that can be completed on your own schedule.
• Projects can be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on needs and performance.
• Your work at Mercor will not involve access to confidential or proprietary information from any employer, client, or institution.
• Payments are weekly on Stripe or Wise based on services rendered.
• Please note: We are unable to support H1-B or STEM OPT candidates at this time.

About Mercor

Mercor partners with leading AI labs and enterprises to train frontier models using human expertise. You will work on projects that focus on training and enhancing AI systems. You will be paid competitively, collaborate with leading researchers, and help shape the next generation of AI systems in your area of expertise.